Study, Published in Magazine Scientific advances, Severe storms are defined as Type 3 hurricane or equivalent. Research has shown that the probability of these storms will be high in the coming decades, and that more people will be affected by severe storms in some of the most vulnerable parts of the world.
Researchers have found that the wind speed of these storms can increase up to 20%, as well as a large increase in the frequency of Type 4 and 5 hurricanes, which can be as high as 200% in some regions.
“Our results reaffirm that (currently) very low-risk areas may actually begin to be affected by tropical cyclones under climate change,” Nadia Bloment, a climate scientist at the University of California, told CNN in an email in Amsterdam. And the primary author of the study. “It is shocking to see the disproportionate number of developing countries at risk of future climate change.”
The hurricane may increase more or less
Researchers have used a statistical forecasting system called STORM to create 10,000-year-old past and future weather conditions. They then used high-definition maps of wind speeds to study future changes locally, “which is very important from a risk assessment perspective,” Blumenthal said.
Scientists have found that areas around Hong Kong and parts of the South Pacific have a higher probability of increased severe storms.
Tokyo – the world’s largest metropolitan area with a population of about 38 million – currently has a 4.6% annual chance of being hit by a major storm. Going forward, scientists found this number to increase to 13.9%.
Another notable jump is Hawaii. There is currently a 4% chance of a major hurricane hitting Honolulu every year. In the coming years, that number will double to 8.6%, according to the study.
The researchers said their results may be due to rising global sea surface temperatures. Ocean temperatures have risen dramatically in recent decades as a result of the burning of fossil fuels. Warm water “will create more fuel for storms to intensify,” Blumenthal said.
What will happen in the Gulf of Mexico
The only areas where scientists do not expect severe tropical cyclones to double in the future are the Gulf of Mexico and the Bay of Bengal. The frequency of severe storms was “fundamentally unchanged” in the study, Blumenthal said, adding that atmospheric conditions in the area would be less favorable for tropical storms in the future.
“Global climate models present greater atmospheric stability in that region under future climatic conditions,” wrote Blumenthal. “Because of this increased atmospheric stability, it is predicted that the overall frequency of tropical cyclones in the Gulf of Mexico will decrease as conditions become more unfavorable for tropical cyclone development.”
But he also noted that when tropical storms form in those areas, the hot water will provide additional fuel for the intensification of Typhoon 3 or more.
So when these scientists expect to see fewer storms overall in the Gulf of Mexico or the Bay of Bengal, these can be very powerful and expensive.
Hurricanes and tornadoes cause more monetary losses than other natural disasters. In the last decade alone, the United States has lost $ 480 billion to tropical cyclones and hurricanes, according to the study.
This is one of the reasons why strong storms in the future are more important than ever, Blumenthal said.
“Our results may help identify areas that are likely to have the largest increase in tropical cyclone risk,” Blumenthal said in a statement. “Local governments can take action to reduce the risk in their region, thus reducing damage and deaths.”
Worldwide, 80 to 100 tropical cyclones form each year. But reliable records of these storms – which can only be seen from ships at one point or when they make a landslide – go back as far as the 1960s or later, when scientists had meteorological satellites. It is difficult to predict long-term changes in the midst of a climate crisis.
Scientists say that with this new research, the world will have a clearer understanding of the future of nature’s most devastating phenomenon.
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