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he Mexican peso It remains unstoppable and yesterday reached its best level in just over eight years, since December 2015, and is aiming for two months in a row with gains against… US currency.
According to data released by the Bank of Mexico (Banxico), exchange rate A is reflected appreciation to 0.14 percent, or 2.40 cents, compared to the previous close of 16.6575 pesos per dollar. Thus, it accumulates a rise of 2.3 percent in the month.
Notable analysts Weight strength Although cut in Reference rate of the Bank of MexicoHe pointed out that the factors that supported it are still in effect, such as: Foreign exchange flows from remittances and exportslike him Interest rate differentialespecially.
Luis Gonzalí, Vice President and Chief Investment Officer of Franklin Templeton Mexico, He explained that much influenced the recent moves of The peso is equivalent to the dollar Responds to a global factor, as 80 percent of Transactions that effect on Weight It doesn't even pass through Mexico, it occurs outside the country.
“This is a general strength due to factors that we have been seeing for some time, e.g Dollar stabilityhe Close to the beach The idea one has regarding the whole investmentThis is something we have not seen reflected yet, but it may begin to decline, in addition to the issue Bear tradewhich is used Weight how Hard currencyHe explained that it is at a higher rate compared to our peers in Latin America.
The negative effects weigh
Pamela Diaz Lope, chief economist for Mexico at BNP Paribas, noted that among some of the elements that continue to support the local currency are the entry of remittances into the country; the Restrictive monetary policy; The differential involved Prices with USAs well as the positive views associated with it Close to the beach.
“There are many contextual elements that can influence their participation, usually including the exchange rate It has a bigger one – Fluctuations surrounding the elections, He noted that this did not have to be the case on this occasion, but factors such as the degree of uncertainty in this environment, and the expectation of continuity in the public policy agenda, could have an impact.
Diaz Lobizzi explained that although High exchange rate Helps economic inflation, he Exchange conversion It is usually asymmetric, with greater sensitivity to seizures Consumptionbesides the fact that Weight strength It can have a negative impact on Exports and transfers.
He stressed that no one benefits from this strong weight, as the beneficiaries are very few, such as importers.
“This does not generate benefits even for the government itself. Regarding your budget, it's better to have one Weak weightWell, though We pay interest denominated in dollarswe also receive Dollar for oil In compensation, we are recipients of the dollar. a Strong weight It could slow down a little Economic issueBecause Mexico has become less able to compete internationally.”
In expectation
Movements Weight It will remain subject to the monetary measures you take later Panxico And the Federal ReserveSince the difference between interest rates was one of the fundamental variables of the interest rate Weight Continue to be appreciated.
Amin Vera, Investment Director at INVALA, He noted that it was very likely that Banxico reference interest rate Continue downward, although there may be a pause in between. “We're not sure about that Federal Reserve Bank Get down at the next meeting, and even if you do, you'll probably do it in moderation. Which Disparity between expectations About what they will do Central bankswhich was not available in 2023, may be resentenced in exchange rate“, pointed out.
the Markets They rule out that the next administration will continue to do so Current economic programmesHe pointed out that the risk, in our opinion, is limited Victor Ceja, chief economist at Valmex; He added that his basic scenario is that at the end of this year Mexican currency Reaching levels close to 17.20 pesos per dollar.
The peso outperforms most currencies
the The strength of the Mexican peso It has been against most of the major currencies globally. According to data from Banxico, out of a total of 68 currencies it tracks, A appreciation With 64 in the last 12 months.
The currency that has lost the most value against National currency Is it Argentine pesoBy 78 percent annually until February of this year. Followed by the Nigerian currency, Niraby 73 percent Turkish liraby 43 percent, and Venezuelan currencyby 37 percent.
They were only rated against Mexican currency he Colombian peso (14 percent), Polish zloty (3.5 percent), Iraqi dinar (2.5) f Costa Rican colon (0.9).
According to data from Bloombergso far this year Weight Shows strength against major developed country currencies; Kiss Japanese Yen It rose by 9.1 percent, followed by Swiss franc (8.6%) Canadian dollar (4.5), and euro (4.2), and Sterling pound (2.8), and American dollarby 2.0 percent.
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