(CNN) – After two consecutive years Complete the list of hurricane names, Forecasters have forecast 19 named storms for this hurricane season, five more than normal.
Of the 19 hurricanes, nine are expected to turn into hurricanes, and four major hurricanes, Type 3 or higher, are forecast by hurricane experts at Colorado State University (CSU). )
The CSU Tropical Meteorological Observatory on Thursday released its annual seasonal forecast for hurricanes in the Atlantic Ocean, marking the 39th year since they published their seasonal report.
This report describes the most active hurricane season, which lasts from June 1 to November 30, and includes above-average forecasts for all storm types.
This year’s forecast is the same as last two years’ forecasts.
Phil Klotzbach, CSU Atmospheric Sciences Research Scientist and Editor-in-Chief of the report, compares the 2022 forecast 2021 And 2020.
“For example, in both April 2020 and April 2021, we have forecast eight hurricanes and four major hurricanes. This year, we have forecast nine hurricanes and four major hurricanes,” Klotzbach told CNN.
The new hurricane season, though not a little more than last year, will be active, this is the third sensational record.
Names of the 2022 Atlantic hurricane season
Tropical cyclone and hurricane names are chosen alphabetically, alternating between male and female. It is rare to need a full list in one season.
“The group predicts that the average hurricane activity in 2022 will be 130% of the 1991-2020 season. In comparison, the average hurricane activity of 2021 will be 120%,” the report says.
The forecast for 19 named storms for this upcoming season is the first of the storms CSU has forecast in its April forecast for the past two years.
“One of the reasons we are forecasting more named storms than in previous years is that we are now naming more storms than ever before due to technological advances,” Clotzbach explained.
Thanks to satellite advances, they are now able to detect weak storms that were unnoticed even 20 or 30 years ago, Clotsback added.
With naming charts sold out in the last two years, 2022 is likely to add to the record for the third year in a row.
World Meteorological Organization (WMO) a Sub-list Names of Atlantic tropical cyclones, in one case.
Additional tropical cyclone names for 2022
If there are more than 21 tropical cyclones in the Atlantic Ocean by 2022, storms will be named from this additional list:
Why would this be the busiest season in the Atlantic?
According to CSU hurricane researchers, the main factor contributing to a high-speed Atlantic season is “no El Nino”.
The tropical Pacific is currently in a weak state GirlWeather pattern known to produce colder temperatures than the average ocean temperature around the equator.
This phenomenon is having an impact on climate around the world.
The girl presents Favorable conditions for hurricanes In contrast to El Nino. Hurricane seasons under El Nio conditions are known for high-level wind patterns across the Caribbean, which break when they try to form hurricanes, making the seasons less active.
“The CSU is not currently expecting El Nino to peak during the Atlantic hurricane season, as La Nina could weaken and shift to neutral conditions this summer,” the report said.
“Warm conditions in the Caribbean and subtropical East Atlantic are also favorable for the active Atlantic hurricane season in 2022,” the report added.
Tropical storms prefer warm seawater, which helps fuel their growth and development. This is one of the main reasons why scientists say the climate crisis is changing Atlantic hurricanes. Hot water and air can Supercharged precipitation rates, Causing landslides and hurricane catastrophic floods. Sea level rise has also increased the damage caused by storm surges.
“In general, we know hurricanes are intensifying fast.” Catherine Hoho previously told CNN, Principal Scientist for Nature Conservation and Professor at the Texas University of Technology. “They are larger and stronger than they are otherwise; there is more rainfall with them, and sea level rise raises the tidal waves.”
Despite the increase in hurricane activity in the Atlantic Ocean in recent seasons, research shows the general trend of hurricanes worldwide since the 1990s.
“We attribute this to the frequent occurrence of La Nina and less frequent El Nino over the past 30 years,” Clotzbach was quoted as saying by CNN. Recently published study.
According to Klotzbach, La Nina conditions tend to increase hurricane activity in the Atlantic, but decrease hurricane / typhoon activity in the Pacific Ocean.
“Because the Pacific is a very large bed and produces many more storms than the Atlantic in general, we have seen an overall trend toward fewer tropical cyclones worldwide, despite the increased activity we have seen in the Atlantic,” Klotsbach said.
How to prepare for the hurricane season
Michael Bell, a professor in the CSU Department of Atmospheric Sciences, said, “You only need one storm to turn this into an active season.
Coastal communities are now being warned to take precautionary measures for an active hurricane season.
The best time to create a hurricane plan is when there is no hurricane! With 4 months to go until the start of the 2022 hurricane season, now is the time to create an emergency plan, 2) determine if you live in an evacuation zone, & 3) create a readiness box! #FLSWAW pic.twitter.com/7Y3TWgv0qH
– NWS Melbourne (@NWSMelbourne) February 10, 2022
According to the report, the probability of creating a major hurricane landslide off the U.S. coast is 71%, which is 52% higher than the average of the last century.
A two-thirds chance of creating a major hurricane landslide should encourage residents in hurricane-affected areas to take action now. Damage caused Hurricane Ida4, struck the coast of the Gulf of Mexico in 2021, vividly reminiscent of the power of major tropical cyclones.
The Hurricane Preparedness Week Celebrated from May 1 to 7, during which the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) encourages people to determine their risk in the event of a hurricane, develops an evacuation plan, and collects emergency supplies if a hurricane hits your area.
The National Hurricane Center (NHC), a branch of the NOAA, is expected to release its first five-day tropical outlook for the 2022 hurricane season on May 15.
NOAA’s Climate Forecast Center is scheduled to release its seasonal outlook on May 24.
The CSU will update its forecasts for June 2, July 7 and August 4, keeping the public as up-to-date as possible.
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