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What is behind Gustavo Petro's double game with the Venezuelan elections?

What is behind Gustavo Petro's double game with the Venezuelan elections?

What is behind Petro's electoral proposal in Venezuela: fear of mass displacement or defeat at the hands of Maduro? (Johan Manuel Largo/Infobay)

Less than 100 days to order Nicolas Maduro Organizing what has so far been presented as a new electoral farce while preventing the main opposition candidates from participating, and some regional leaders traditionally aligned with the government. Dictatorship They seek to distance themselves from the negative burden of supporting society Chavismo Or try to stop a new wave of… Venezuelan immigration In their countries they expect this to happen if the Caracas regime succeeds in being re-elected July 28.

A recent study conducted by the company Massive analysis It reveals alarming data about Maduro's supposed victory in the upcoming elections.

The survey indicates that 8 out of 10 people in… Venezuela They prefer that Chavismo and Maduro not remain in power for an additional period of six years.

Moreover, it highlights the concern about lack Freedom to participate And absence Electoral guarantees70% of the sample expressed their doubts about the legitimacy of the electoral process.

8 out of 10 people in Venezuela prefer that Chavismo and Maduro not remain in power for an additional period of six years (EFE/ Rayner Peña R)

This context suggests a potential increase in migration, as approximately 40% of the population, according to Meganalysis, would consider the possibility of emigrating if there was no change in the following votes, which equates to an estimate of 8.9 million people.

However, the latest opinion study conducted by More consultations He reveals that a unionist candidate supports him Maria Corina Machado They will have every chance of narrowly defeating Maduro at the ballot box 45.8% of voting intention.

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This figure contrasts sharply with the recorded support for the Caribbean dictator, who would receive only… 21.6% in his re-election bid.

Furthermore, the study highlights that if Machado W Democratic Unionist Platform (PUD) From uniting a single candidate, there is a noticeable increase in the desire to vote, with 71.1% of those surveyed expressing complete confidence in participating.

The general candidate supported by María Corina Machado would have every chance of defeating Maduro at the polls with 45.8% of voting intentions. (Reuters/Gaby Ora)

Predicting a possible political defeat for Chavismo, President of Colombia Gustavo Pietro And his Brazilian counterpart Luiz Inacio Lula da SilvaThey suggested implementing a Referendum In conjunction with the presidential elections, as a strategy for “Guaranteeing security and political rights“From the losing candidate.

This initiative will seek to facilitate a pardon To the leaders of the current regime in the event of a change of government and the start of an orderly transition in Venezuela.

“We want to transmit to President Lula a proposal that was conveyed to President Maduro and the opposition. This is a possibility to hold a referendum in the next elections, which will guarantee a democratic charter,” Petro said.

He added: “We want to guarantee anyone who loses in these electoral contests the certainty and security regarding their lives, their rights, and the political guarantees that any human being should enjoy in their country.”

Colombian President Gustavo Petro and his Brazilian counterpart, Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, proposed holding a referendum in Venezuela to “guarantee the security and political rights” of the losing candidate. (AP Photo/Fernando Vergara)

However, this position indicates clear recognition of Absence of the rule of law In Venezuela, this also reflects the Colombian president's ignorance of the electoral laws in the Caribbean country, as the number of “referendum” in Venezuela is not stipulated in the constitution.

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Many analysts have described Petro's proposal as “mysterious“But 'comfortable'.”

“Both Petro and Lula want the situation in Venezuela to return to as normal as possible (…) It is not in any country's interest to have a neighbor suffering from permanent political instability, and this is not a good thing“Said international analyst Ivan Rojas in an interview with the portal Voice of AmericaHe highlighted the importance of creating an environment of security and certainty that benefits all parties involved in the Venezuelan political conflict.

the Technical feasibility This proposal, according to journalist and director of Votoscopio.com Eugenio Martinez, is conditional on defining the questions and response options for the referendum, which must be ready before May 15, in order to comply with the requirements of the referendum. Review of the Venezuelan electoral system

“It is simply a matter of inserting a second voting screen into the electoral machines and putting the question and the two answer options: yes or no,” Martinez said in a conversation with the aforementioned media, adding a layer of complexity to the already difficult Venezuelan elections. practical.

If Machado and the Democratic Unionist Party succeed in uniting a single candidate, there will be a noticeable increase in the desire to vote, as 71.1% of those surveyed expressed their complete confidence in participating. (Reuters/Gaby Ora)

For her part, political scientist Ana Milagros Parra stressed the importance of international actors like Petro proposing mechanisms to confront the Venezuelan crisis, “since They somehow realize that these elections could pose a problem within the country and at the regional level“.

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The Colombian president is facing severe criticism after his recent meeting with the Venezuelan candidate Manuel Rosales During his visit to Caracas on April 10, a fact that sparked controversy in both Colombia and the international community.

This meeting came one day after his meeting with Nicolas Madurowhich many interpreted as implicit support for the authoritarian regime in Venezuela.

Colombian Senator Paloma Valencia The famous Venezuelan opposition leader Juan Guaido They questioned the meeting between Petro, Maduro and Manuel Rosales.

Valencia stressed that the Colombian leader's actions seek to legitimize… The opposition created by the dictatorship itselfWhile Guaido accused the Colombian president of interfering and contributing to the recognition of the regime.

“Have you ever seen that before? He met with the opposition in Venezuela… the opposition that Maduro invented to say he was not violating Maria Corina Machado,” Petro said.

For his part, Guaido confirmed that Petro ignored the mandate of the Venezuelan people in the primary elections when he met with the candidates allied with Maduro.

“I met a dictator and deliberately ignored the candidate elected by Venezuelans. “We know that we are facing a dictatorship and that is why they are excluding us,” Guaido said. “For the president to do this would mean cooperating with the whitewashing of the regime.”