Russia and Ukraine: 3 main ways Moscow can use if Putin decides to invade

Michael Kaufman of CNA, a US – based research organization, says that if Russia seeks total regime change in Ukraine, an attack from the north is more likely.

Russia has rallied 30,000 soldiers in Belarus Iskander for joint military exercises with short-range missiles and various rocket launchers, as well as Su-25 ground attack aircraft and Su-35 fighter jets.

In the east, on Russian soil, Kaufman says, “Russia’s 41st Army is waiting at the border.”

Advances from Belarus to Kiev could avoid the exclusion zone around the Chernobyl nuclear power plant.

According to Seth Jones of the Center for Strategic and International Studies, on the Russian side, the attack could come from Novi Yurkovic and Troportno.

Ben Barry of the International Strategic Research Institute says that if Russia invades, an operation from the Crimea will be “almost certain.”

According to Barry, in a ground battle “powerful armored columns with concentrated artillery support will try to push quickly into Ukraine”.

A Russian advance from Crimea to Kiev Can isolate a large number of Ukrainian troops East of the Dnieper River, he points out.

The Ukrainian army will be surrounded by Russian forces in the west, east and north, as well as in Crimea.

Russian troops could try to move Kherson and Odessa to the west, Melitopol and Mariupol to the east, creating a ground bridge between Crimea and areas controlled by Russian separatists.

A turning point may also include navies currently in the Black Sea.

Russian landing ships can deploy troops, armored vehicles and major battle tanks in the region.

Russian-backed rebels captured large areas in 2014 in two key areas, Luhansk and Donetsk.

It is believed that About 15,000 separatists Luhansk and Donetsk bCann Join For Russian progress.

Ukraine believes this number is high.

In Russia 10,000 soldiers are permanently stationed across the border in the Rostov region, and many more have recently been added.

If Russia attacks from the east, troops will advance into Crimea, forming a ground bridge over the southeastern coast of Ukraine.

They can go from Belgorod to Kharkiv and then to Kremensuk.

Attacks could be made from the east to protect Russian-speaking areas in rebel-held areas.

Barry points out that even a limited operation could be bombing air defense and key military command infrastructure in other parts of the country.

Analysts insist that any Russian development could involve many ways at once Cyber ​​attacks, misinformation warfare and missile launching.

They also believe that carrying out large-scale cyber-attacks without taking over the region may be a more limited option for Russia, with the aim of disabling key infrastructure in Ukraine.

In the end, Kaufman says, the exact details of any attack Depending on Moscow’s political goals.

And, the latter, is not clear.

Graphics by Prina Shaw and Joe Bartholomew

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