Gustavo Petro beat his rivals at the polls on Sunday, but he’s not exactly a winner. In his race for the presidency, on Sunday he received fewer votes than he did four years ago.
In the first round of 2018, Petro slightly exceeded 4.8 million votes and fell yesterday to 4.4 million votes. This is a very crucial indicator in a contest for the presidency as intense as the one that Colombians are experiencing.
In a competition close to that planned on Sunday, When the first opinion blow had to be dealt to the presidency, Petro backed off.
Petro’s victory for Congress is indisputable, ever since He put himself on the same level as the conservatives in the Senate: 16 seats. But he did not achieve the thirty seats that were expected.
Petro and his list head in the Senate, Gustavo Bolivar Their goal was to win an absolute majority of Congress, and they didn’t achieve that either..
Federico Gutierrez and Iquibo of Colombia – his coalition – are the undisputed winners on Sunday’s election.
Gutierrez came from being chancellor and mayor of Medellin, and in his first national appearance at the polls received 216,0329 votes.
At first glance, Fico’s chances of going up before the first round are many, while Pietro, given the results, seems to have reached the limit.
While Petro’s recognition in all polls exceeds 80%, Fico’s is only 40%. This illustrates the potential growth space for Fico and the reduced space for Petro.
The negative image of Petro was greater than the historically preferred image. Only recently in some measurements could this trend begin to change a little.
By having a Fico rating lower than Petro, it also automatically means he has a lower negative opinion.
A negative opinion reflects the feelings of those who probably would never vote for that person.
Finally, Fico can grow more because it is less appreciatedAnd because the negative opinion is less than the opinion of Petro.
Another aspect in favor of Fico is that All the candidates who competed with him for the nomination are major contributors to the vote. The coalition is cohesive. There is a whole unit that generates great capacity for meeting.
Fico has on his way the possibility of looking for alliances with presidential candidates Oscar Ivan Zuluaga (from Oribismo) and with Rodolfo Hernandez, who said that each of them will go alone to the first round.
This Sunday’s poll results may make Zuluaga and Hernandez think, however, because their chances are not promising if they go through the first round alone.
Where Finco will surely also reach the votes of the Conservative Party and La U, achieving significant representation in Congress.
Especially the conservative current, which achieved the largest vote for right-wing parties in the Capitol, with more than 2.2 million votes. and La U with more than 1.5 million votes.
Cambio Radical’s decision is not yet known, but this party could also be one of Fico .’s greatest support Because of their ideological affinity.
Religious groups will also arrive, which in all can receive more than half a million votes.
Petro is waiting for some green sectors to arrive and is keeping in touch with the liberals to get the bulk of this vote. What happens is that many elected liberals have already committed to other candidates and won’t be able to get the whole party over.
Sergio Fajardo won the Centro Esperanza referendum and became the coalition’s candidate for the presidency, but lost.
Like Pietro, Fajardo returned to the vote four years ago.
Fajardo went from more than 4.5 million votes in the first round of 2018, to just 723,000 votes on Sunday in the consultation, taking away his power to win the first round.
Fajardo’s coalition itself ended up poorly electorally and politically. It has little ability to hold meetings to expand voting in the first round.
As things went on Sunday at the polls, The first and second rounds will be led by Yasar Petro and his historic pact and a great coalition of the center-right.
As of this week, what has begun is a massive search for allies for each of these two sectors (left and right) in a power struggle, against a deeply dwindling position and with no real chance of vying for the presidency.