With a double victory in New Hampshire and Iowa, Donald Trump is projected as the almost certain winner of the Republican presidential nomination for the November election. But at the same time, the manner in which it was imposed is an omen of potential problems in the general election.
It has been said and proven that the two states where the party's primary process begins are not representative of the general American community. No further conclusions can be drawn about how a candidate will fare in the November election..
In fact, it is highly unusual for the winner of Iowa to be the winner of New Hampshire. Something to expect only when the candidate is the current president. Trump made history by winning both states this year. But the scope of those successes must be contextual.
First, consider that presidential elections typically mobilize more militant parties. For Iowa, it is a traditionally conservative state that contrasts with New Hampshire, which has many liberals and independents.
Lessons from Primary Classes in Iowa and New Hampshire
Polls conducted during the New Hampshire primaries give some indication that the Trump campaign should take November's presidential election into account and show weaknesses in its rematch against Joe Biden.
For example, one-third of Republican participants in the New Hampshire primary believe the former president did something illegal in connection with the lawsuits brought against him by the Justice Department and the state of Georgia. Associated Press.
According to the same survey, Half of Republican voters worry that Trump is too radical to win the general electionA recognition that the former president's radical message generates more rejection than support among more centrist voters.
In Iowa, a majority of Republicans prefer NBC and The Des Moines Registry While only 23% of those who supported Haley in state caucuses said they would vote for Trump if he won the nomination, 44% said they would vote for Biden.
Trump: The balance between the base and the general electorate
And therein lies one of Trump's greatest weaknesses: his radical rhetoric energizes and mobilizes his base, creating problems for him when it comes to appealing to moderate voters, whether independents, conservative Democrats or Republicans.
” 35% of state Republicans will not vote for Donald Trump. He is bleeding from the core. He needs Haley's votes, and now many Republicans say they won't vote for him. And that's a warning sign,” analyst Mark Thiessen said on Fox News following the conclusion of the New Hampshire primary.
Trump's Republican critics openly fear that he will be difficult to win in November and that he will be a liability for the party's candidates in other elections, as has happened in every national election since Trump first entered the White House in 2016.
Radical Speech and Issues of Justice: Issues
Trump has 91 criminal charges against him His role in what happened at the United States Capitol on January 6, 2021, and classified documents found at his Florida home after he left the White House are among the various processes he allegedly tried to interfere with vote counting in the 2020 presidential elections.
Polls in New Hampshire show that Trump's base believes it was political persecution and that he is fit to be president if he is convicted. On the other hand, 83% of those who supported Haley believe she is unfit for office.
Attracting moderates, centrists and independents is key to any campaign strategy. Poles, although they are very significant, tend to be too active and dominate the scene, not enough to impose an electoral agenda.
In 2016, Trump split independent voters evenly with Democrat Hillary Clinton, according to a Pew Center study. On that occasion, the then businessman lost the popular vote but won the number of Electoral College delegates and, with them, the presidency.
In 2020, Biden won 54% of independents, compared to Trump's 41%, according to Pew. That year, Trump's defeat was explained by Biden's better performance in moderate fields, mainly the suburbs and especially among women.
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