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California case: Why the United States can defeat the plague before the herd achieves immunity

California case: Why the United States can defeat the plague before the herd achieves immunity

Reopening of Disneyland Park in Anaheim, California (REUTERS / Mario Anzuoni)

From the beginning of the epidemic, the herd immunity is spoken of as that light at the end of the road. At least 70% of the population is immunized (either by vaccination or by having antibodies to escape the virus), thus reducing the risk of COVID-19 infection. Now that the vaccination process is so advanced in the United States, people are beginning to believe that the tipping point may be even earlier.

If 30 to 40 million people in the country are vaccinated, the number of residents with antibodies will increase by 10 to 15 percent. At that point, the epidemic will reach where it can be controlled, according to a study by Scripps, based in La Jolla, California.

According to CDC (Centers for Disease Control) data, So far the U.S. 44% of the population has received at least one dose of the corona virus vaccine, while 31% are already fully immunized. With more than 15 percent of vaccines, it is not possible to get rid of the virus, but it can significantly stop the infection and prevent major infections.

Towards the west

For example, we take California, One of the states most affected by the epidemic, but one that has better regulated the vaccination process. With 50 percent of its population vaccinated, In recent weeks the weekly infection rate has been reduced to 4.3 cases per 100,000 population. 9.6 people per 100,000 residents per week in February, compared to 5.5 a month ago.

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Logically, the more people are vaccinated, the higher the content of the virus. Ann San Francisco, Seventy-two percent of the population over the age of 16 has already been vaccinated. Throughout April, only six people died as a result of COVID 19. But before those vaccine numbers can be reached the situation may start to turn upside down.

Passengers at a subway station in New York (REUTERS / Brendan McDermott)
Passengers at a subway station in New York (REUTERS / Brendan McDermott)

Challenges in other parts of the country

The general number of new cases is declining, especially in high-risk groups – such as those over 65, where there has been a sharp drop – because they were the first to be vaccinated.

Two-thirds of people 65 and over in the United States are already immunized, according to the CDC. For those who have already been vaccinated, contracting COVID-19 reduces the risk of hospitalization by 94 percent compared to those who have not been vaccinated at the same age..

In states like Vermont, where 56 percent of the elderly population has already been vaccinated, the number of COVID patients dropped by 60 percent in April.

The problem in the country is that the vaccine is no longer accessible, it is now available to everyone over the age of 18, but there is a minority percentage of the population who do not want to be vaccinated. Eight percent of those who received the first dose did not return to the second dose. This is not a high profile person, but national officials are launching a campaign to raise awareness about the need to get a full immunization.

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With an average of 3 million vaccines available daily in the country, it may take a few weeks to get an additional 30 million vaccines.

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