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What if only 3 million people decided who the next president of the United States would be?

What if only 3 million people decided who the next president of the United States would be?

Located in key states, about 3 million voters could be the people who actually choose the president of the United States in November (REUTERS/Daniel Steinle)

They call it that Swingland: Who is that land They balanceAs in swing (ie Swing), between supporting a Democratic or Republican candidate. A country of more than 340 million people has very few people: total Major states have 3 million voters For definition Electoral CollegeIt is the system that effectively elects the president in the United States because the system is indirect.

There, in Swingland, the 2024 US presidential election is shaping up to be a titanic showdown. Possible candidates, the competition between the current President Joe Biden and the previous one Donald Trump – a Rematch There will be no resale of tickets, so the public is not excited by the prospect of seeing the same showdown again from 2020 – which could be decided by around 3 million voters, less than 1% of the population. With that power, this small group of voters also has the ability to influence important global decisions, from dealing with the climate crisis to continuing to support Ukraine in its conflict with Russia.

In 2020 electionSeven states had victory margins of less than 3%, the analysis found Mother Jones: Georgia (0.3%), Pennsylvania (1.2%), Michigan (2.8%), Wisconsin (0.6%), Arizona (0.4%), snowfall (2.4%) and North Carolina (1.3%), and Biden won six of them. These swingland states could be where the election is decided again.

The publication estimates that while billions of dollars are spent on election campaigns, the decision falls to them, meaning about 3 million undecided voters. Many of them are not deeply engaged in the country's political debate, which poses a challenge to political strategists who want to influence their votes.

The rematch between current President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump is limited to just seven states (REUTERS/Daniel Steinle)

In the last election, the number of voters in swingland was approximately 30.6 million, and the vote was very tightly distributed between Biden and Trump. While the total number of voters in these key states remains constant, the specific group of voters varies from election to election due to many factors, such as changes in the eligible voting population, variations in party allegiance, and individual dynamics. Election cycle. The figure of 3 million undecided voters represents an estimate based on surveys About 10% of swingland voters are undecided.

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To win the 2024 elections, Biden Barring major surprises in other states, we need to achieve victory in at least four key states. If you win three, you must win the combination that gives you At least 41 electoral votes; For example, a combination of Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin looks like a possible path for him. For its part, Trump Success in classification of these four states of inclusion is required 54 electoral votes, although not all four-state combinations meet this goal. Both candidates, aware of the split in preferences among swingland voters, face the challenge of capturing the attention and support of these voters. undecided Among those states, whose inclination will be decisive in determining which of the two A resident of the White House between 2025 and 2029.

Campaign groups' research focuses on identifying undecided voters and developing social networks that can be used to reach them with election-related messages. Also, special attention is given Women in rural and suburban areasAs well as the Young African Americans In these major states.

A déjà vu that doesn't excite voters too much: a Joe Biden-Donald Trump rematch in 2020 in 2024 (EFE)

For the Biden and Trump campaigns, the 2024 election appears to be framed in apocalyptic terms, with accusations of mutual recriminations ranging from Trump's claims that a Biden re-election would destroy America to warnings about the dangers of Biden and his allies. Trump poses for American democracy. Months of intense attacks are expected to wear down the opponent.