UK to reach projected temperatures by 2050 (analysis)

(CNN) — Two years ago, UK meteorologists conducted an interesting thought experiment: What will our predictions look like in 2050?

The climate crisis is pushing weather extremes around the world, and temperatures in northern latitudes are particularly sensitive to these changes. So Metorologists, the UK’s official weather forecasting agency, created very long-range climate models to see what kind of temperatures they would predict for the summer of 2020, around three decades from now.

“Actual weather is not a forecast,” say Met Office charts. “They are examples of plausible weather based on climate predictions.”

Well, on Mondays and Tuesdays, the “believable” becomes true … 28 years ago.

Simon Lee, an atmospheric scientist at Columbia University in New York, noted the striking similarity between the outlook for 2050 and the forecast in the UK early next week.

“Today, the forecast for Tuesday is surprisingly almost the same for large parts of the country.” Simon tweeted, “What’s to come on Tuesday gives us a glimpse into the future,” added a later post.

In 2020, the @metoffice Produced a hypothetical weather forecast for 23 July 2050 based on UK Climate Forecasts.

Today, the forecast for Tuesday is shockingly almost identical for large parts of the country. pic.twitter.com/U5hQhZwoTi

— Dr. Simon Lee (@SimonLeeWx) July 15, 2022

Thirty years from now, this prediction will seem all too common.

Temperatures in England are forecast to be 10-15 degrees Celsius above normal early next week. Highs could approach 40C for the first time, prompting forecasters to release “Red” heat warning For the first time in history.

To be clear, this would actually be the heat on record. In 2019, the highest temperature recorded in the country was 38.7 degrees Celsius at Cambridge Botanic Gardens.

The climate crisis is a clear indication of how rapidly our times are changing.

“We hope we don’t get to this point,” said Nikos Christidis, a climate change attribution scientist at the Met Office. It is a statement. “Climate change has already affected the likelihood of extreme temperatures in the UK. The likelihood of 40C days recorded in the UK in the current climate could be 10 times higher than in a natural climate unaffected by human influence.”

Christidis said the probability of exceeding 40C was “rapidly increasing”.

It’s more than just a few bad days. Extreme heat is one of the deadliest climate events, and we don’t see it as often as heat strokes and deaths from underlying conditions like heart or respiratory disease.

Further, Recent reports They suggest that more than 5% of UK homes lack air conditioning to help keep occupants cool.

We saw a similar situation in the United States last summer, when several days of extreme heat hit the Pacific Northwest. Hundreds died in the heat. British Columbia officials said there were more than 800 “excess deaths” During the heat, deaths are unexpected and far from the norm for that time of year.

Unlike a city-destroying flood or wildfire, the sense of urgency surrounding a deadly heat wave isn’t shocking, said Christy Eby, a climate and health researcher at the University of Washington, who noted that heat is a “silent killer.”

“When it’s hot outside, it’s hot outside, so it’s a silent killer,” Eby previously told CNN. “People are generally ignorant and don’t think about the risks associated with these high temperatures.”

He also said that it should be understood that the weather is not the same as it was a few years ago. The climate crisis is already affecting our lives today, and it will hit the most vulnerable.

“We all look forward to summer to enjoy warmer temperatures, but there are people who are at risk from these high temperatures,” he said. “As the climate continues to change or temperatures rise above what we experienced when we were young, people need to pay more attention, especially to those around them.”

— Rachel Ramirez contributed to this report.