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Polling in Brazil: Unlike the rest, a poll predicted that Jair Bolsonaro would defeat Lula da Silva

Polling in Brazil: Unlike the rest, a poll predicted that Jair Bolsonaro would defeat Lula da Silva

File photo of former President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva and Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro at a debate (Reuters/Mariana Gref)

A survey released on Friday indicated that Jair Bolsonarothe President of Brazil and candidate for re-election, ahead of his rival in the run-off, the former President Lola da Silvawith a slight difference in intent to vote and could win the polls next Sunday.

The survey by ModalMais Bank of the Futura Institute indicates this Bolsonaro received 50.3% of the valid vote against Lula’s 49.7%. For valid sounds, voids, invalid sounds and people who say they don’t know, they are not taken into account. This is how Brazil’s Supreme Electoral Tribunal (TSE) does the official election count.

Listen to the poll 2000 people By computer-assisted telephone interviews between October 24 and 26 with a margin of error of 2.2 percentage points. It differs from most other polls published this week, which point to Lula’s advantage.

On the other hand, ModalMais / Futura indicates that The biggest voter concern, with 45.2% citing, is the “return of Labour.”Referring to the Workers’ Party led by Lula da Silva. Another 43% indicated that their biggest fear is “the continuation of this government,” referring to the Bolsonaro administration.

Supporters of President and re-election candidate Jair Bolsonaro share a space in a street with supporters of former President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva in Brasilia on October 26, 2022 (Reuters/Usley Marcelino)
Supporters of President and re-election candidate Jair Bolsonaro share a space in a street with supporters of former President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva in Brasilia on October 26, 2022 (Reuters/Usley Marcelino)

After a fierce campaign, Brazil arrives on Sunday in second round The presidential election is between Jair Bolsonaro and Lula da Silva, both leaders with strong popular disapproval. The 77-year-old former president won the first round 48% to 43% and on Friday will face each other in the latest TV debate.

Lula, a former miner, was president twice between 2003 and 2010 and was imprisoned in the massive “Lava Jato” anti-corruption case. But he was resurrected politically after his conviction was overturned due to procedural irregularities.

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Bolsonaro, a 67-year-old former army chief, is seeking re-election after a turbulent term marked by the pandemic’s deaths of 688,000 people, alarming levels of deforestation in the Amazon and institutional tensions.

In the first round, the president was surprised to get a better performance than expected in the polls.

File photo of an electronic ballot box during election day at a school in Brasilia (EFE/Joédson Alves)
File photo of an electronic ballot box during election day at a school in Brasilia (EFE/Joédson Alves)

The election campaign was also marked Bolsonaro’s ongoing questioning – without evidence – of the electronic voting systema position that raised fears that he would not accept an eventual defeat and riots such as the invasion of the United States Capitol after the defeat of Donald Trump.

In recent weeks, Bolsonaro appeared to have softened his rhetoric, citing his criticism of poll regulators. Last week he said it again The results will be accepted as long as the armed forces do not detect anything “abnormal”. Despite the tensions, many analysts rule out an institutional rift.

(With information from AFP)

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